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expected value

Expected value is the statistical long term value coming from a particular action for a particular player. This value can be used to decide between a call and fold, or it may assist in deciding the amount one should bet.

Expected value is typically expressed as a dollar value, or chips value, depending on whether a ring game or tournament is being played.

Positive/Negative Expected Value

With respect to return on investment an action is said have a positive expected value if the return is greater than zero and a negative expected value if the return is less than zero. This may be confusing since the expected value itself is always a positive number, and positive/negative expected value actually refer to the return on investment.

Maresch has a flush draw on the river and reasonably expects the flush would win the hand. He knows there is a 20% chance to make his draw. The pot is $80 and the bet is $10 to him. The expected value of a call is ($80 + $10) * 20% = $18. $18 is greater than the $10 he must contribute therefore he has a positive expected value.

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